One the biggest recent stories in triathlon has been the development of Tilda Månsson. Already known as a spectacular runner after winning World Cups in 2022 and 2023 and breaking Swedish Junior records on the track, she has added new strings to her bow of late.
A win at the Wollongong World Cup in April followed her usual template of sprinting to victory. Of greater interest was what came next. At the Chengdu World Cup, Månsson had the best swim of her Senior career and then rode as part of a select breakaway group. Keeping pace with the likes of Julie Derron, Ilaria Zane and Alice Betto was no mean feat but the Swedish athlete had little trouble and then claimed the silver medal, her first over the Olympic distance.
Two weeks later, she had her best swim yet in a WTCS race in Yokohama. While a bike issue stopped her from finishing, the signs of progress are clear to see. Månsson is becoming an all-rounder and that greatly increases her chances of winning this weekend’s World Cup in Samarkand. She can win in a straight running race or perhaps in a breakaway and that gives her options.
However, even though the Samarkand start list is a little on the short side numerically, there are still athletes that can beat Månsson in either a running race or a breakaway. While she has a great shot of doing well, it is by no means guaranteed.
Vicky Holland has been superlative in the run this season. She was the fastest runner at the Hong Kong World Cup and was among the top-6 runners at WTCS Yokohama. If the field stays together in Uzbekistan, she could show the youngster Månsson a clean pair of heels. The World U23 champion Selina Klamt would also probably fancy her chances in a running race.
Conversely, in a breakaway it is almost impossible to look past Lena Meißner. The WTCS medallist is one of the best swimmers and cyclists in the field (maybe she is the best) and has no shortage of speed on the run. In the last few years, Meißner is one of the few women to have ridden with Flora Duffy in a breakaway and then held on to win a medal. On her day, she belongs in the highest echelon of racers.
Sian Rainsley won the Hong Kong World Cup on the back of a breakaway and also out-ran Katie Zaferes. Since that triumph, Rainsley has had some bad luck in both Wollongong and Yokohama. If she gets through Samarkand unscathed, she will probably be in the hunt for the win. Her compatriot Jessica Fullagar is also in good form. Fullagar won the French Grand Prix season opener in Fréjus where she made the breakaway and had the top bike split. While she does not yet have the World Cup or WTCS results of Rainsley, Månsson or Meißner, Fullagar could be on the cusp of a breakthrough internationally.
At the same time, Sandra Dodet was the fastest runner in Fréjus. A World Cup gold medallist already Dodet could be the best placed athlete to take on Månsson in a running race.
Ilaria Zane has finished 6th, 5th and 4th in her last three World Cup races. A medal may therefore be incoming while she is also no stranger to a breakaway. Meanwhile Roksana Slupek is in great form and won a maiden World Cup medal in Chengdu.
On balance, then, Månsson’s recent form may make her the slight favourite for this race. However there are at least half a dozen athletes that could also win and the event could unfold in any number of ways.
TriStats Predictions
- Tilda Månsson
- Lena Meißner
- Ilaria Zane
- Sian Rainsley
- Sandra Dodet
